In a bold shift in its stance, India has announced that it will "never restore" the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan. Union Home Minister Amit Shah recently emphasized that water that used to flow to Pakistan will now be redirected for India's own use, especially benefiting states like Rajasthan. This strong position comes on the heels of India's decision in April 2025 to put the 1960 treaty on hold after a terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which New Delhi blamed on cross-border terrorism. Reports indicate that India is now considering a plan for a 113 km-long canal to channel water from the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, making the most of its share under the treaty.

Pakistan has strongly condemned India's unilateral action, calling it a "brazen disregard" for international agreements and a "dangerous precedent." Islamabad argues that the treaty does not allow for one-sided suspension and has warned that any obstruction of water flow would be seen as "an act of war." According to reports from Pakistan, India's actions have already resulted in nearly a 20% drop in water flow, pushing dams to "dead levels" and severely affecting the agricultural sector, particularly in Punjab province.

Former Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has issued a serious warning, stating that Pakistan would "go to war" if India denies its rightful share of water under the IWT. He stressed that water is a "red line" for Pakistan and accused India of "weaponizing terrorism" for its own political advantage. Pakistan is actively considering a legal challenge to India's decision under international law and has called for global intervention to address the escalating conflict, underscoring the potential for regional instability.

These recent developments represent a critical turning point in the long-standing water-sharing agreement between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. The Indus Waters Treaty, once a rare pillar of cooperation, now stands as a flashpoint for renewed tensions. With India determined to utilize its allocated share and Pakistan facing potential water scarcity, the lack of dialogue and the confrontational rhetoric raise serious concerns about the future of water security and regional stability in South Asia.