Japan’s position along the Pacific “Ring of Fire” makes it highly susceptible to seismic activity, and recent events have once again triggered public anxiety over the ability to predict earthquakes. However, experts urge caution: science has not yet reached a point where we can forecast the exact timing and location of major quakes. Earlier this week, a 5.5 magnitude quake struck Kagoshima Prefecture, accompanied by over 1,000 tremors in the region. In response, some evacuation orders were issued for remote islands. Simultaneously, a popular manga, The Future I Saw by Ryo Tatsuki, circulated rumors of a catastrophic quake and tsunami in early July. While the work seemingly predicted the 2011 Tōhoku disaster, officials emphasized that such predictions are literary, not scientific.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and government scientists affirm that accurate earthquake prediction—specifying time, location, or magnitude—remains beyond current scientific capability. Nonetheless, geological models estimate an 80% chance of a megaquake along the Nankai Trough in the next 30 years. This is a long‐term statistical forecast, not a short‐term precise warning. Japan’s modern early warning ecosystem focuses on real‐time alerts and probability-based modeling. The JMA’s Earthquake Early Warning system uses over 1,000 seismic stations and gravity signal like PEGS from the 2011 Tōhoku quake to deliver alerts seconds before shaking begins. Meanwhile, large-scale simulations run on supercomputers—such as JAMSTEC’s use of the “K Computer”—help predict wave propagation and potential tsunami risks after major events.

Additionally, the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP), formed in 1969, evaluates seismic data across government agencies, but long-term plans have gradually shifted away from short-term forecasts due to repeated failures in capturing reliable precursors. Innovations continue, such as applying AI and machine learning (e.g., NESTORE) to forecast aftershock probability and detect micro-foreshocks, with some success in predicting aftershock clusters within hours.

The bottom line: while Japan’s warning systems have become highly sophisticated and effective in providing early alerts and long-term forecasts, no known method can yet predict exactly when and where a quake will strike. Authorities advise the public to stay informed, rely on official JMA updates, and maintain preparedness—including evacuation drills and infrastructure resilience.